Green Swans: The Coming Boom in Regenerative Capitalism

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I have tried to highlight the positive bits in this book review, and there are quite a few good sections contained within it. Elon Musk’s decision to start Tesla, producing electric cars himself because no other car manufacturer would invest, is a good example.

According to his book, Green Swans are “solutions that take us exponentially toward breakthrough” or “systemic solutions to global challenges, solutions that tap into positive exponentials. Along the way, he has co-founded four social-purpose businesses since 1978, including Environmental Data Services (ENDS, 1978), John Elkington Associates/CounterCurrent (1983), SustainAbility (1987) and Volans Ventures (2008). Way back in 2004, BusinessWeek described him as “a dean of the corporate responsibility movement for three decades. The sub section on the Anthropocene was particularly good, but I thought it could have been bigger and been the central focus. That work reached an important stage last week, with the publication of John’s twentieth book, Green Swans: The Coming Boom In Regenerative Capitalism.The 2020s will either produce a world of “Black Swan” breakdowns, among them the climate emergency and species extinction, or of breakthrough Green Swan solutions. Book, Green Swans: The Coming Boom in Regenerative Capitalism, by John Elkington, Fast Company Press April 2020.

As a result, time and again we fail to understand what has just happened, setting ourselves up to be blindsided once again. We must also ponder how to help some of the world’s “lame duck” industries, which otherwise will exert every sinew to slow down the necessary changes to transform their mindsets and business models. We’ve heard terms such as the Sustainable Development Goals, the Triple Bottom Line, ESG, Regeneration, Circular Economy, various ISO standards, and so forth many times over the last decade.

It identifies the specific features that characterise climate-related financial risks, including devastating ‘ green swan’ risks that are certain to occur but almost impossible to predict with any accuracy. The Observatory collates practical, verified examples of market shifts, businesses, policy innovation, technologies and individuals with demonstrated potential to drive rapid and radical change across issues, themes and geographies.

We addressed the role of technology, how it is always a double edged sword, and how we can apply technology wisely.

Typical platforms in this area have acronyms like GRI (Global Reporting Initiative), IIRC (International Integrated Reporting Council), SASB (Sustainability Assounting Standards Board) and WBCSD (World Business Council for Sustainable Development).

The net result is that we give them significantly less attention and resources than they need — or than the future of the 2030s and beyond would want us to in hindsight. Black Swans are highly improbable events that come as a surprise, have major disruptive effects, and that are often rationalized after the fact as if they had been predictable to begin with. Once we have received all suggestions from our partners we will create a shortlist, and those chosen will be the inaugural candidates for the Green Swan Observatory. Despite — and increasingly because of — COVID-19, there are exciting signs of a potentially regenerative future building all around.

Now, 15 years later, John Elkington, the originator of the Triple Bottom Line, author of 20 books, and founder of sustainability consultancy Volans, introduced the term “Green Swan” in his book Green Swans: The Coming Boom In Regenerative Capitalism.